Two visions –a specter perchance?- float through public discussion in anticipation of the beginning of the new administration. One emphasizes and evokes conflict, the differences and the supposed riding roughshod over the democratic process. The other privileges the opportunity to break with the politico-legislative paralysis that has characterized the country in recent decades and to deposit it on the threshold of a new era of growth. Are we at the brink of an insurmountable abyss, or merely facing a difference in perceptions: if the glass is half full or half empty?
The July 1 elections produced three circumstances: a) the need for coalitions for the advancement of a legislative agenda; b) a new source of political conflict, and c) a great opportunity.
The need for coalitions is not something new. The reforms of the eighties and nineties inaugurated a new era of cooperation among parties at the legislative level and this has been the tenor of what has advanced and what has remained fixed in place. The pretention of unanimity and consensus impeded the transcendent initiatives from prospering, but the fact of negotiating alliances now forms an inherent part of the national legislative process. In fact, an enormous number of constitutional decrees has been approved (64 of these since 1997), all the product of multi-party votes, but the overwhelming majority of these initiatives refers to political and social rights. That is, despite the fact that the process functions, the parties have been stubborn about affecting real interests in the political or economic arenas, which is, by definition, the nature of structural reforms in fields such as fiscal, labor, or energy.
The new source of conflict is not so new. Although, at least in concept, some of the claims of the coalition merit serious discussion (and I say in concept because the use of the monies was not confined to a sole party), the law suit presented before the Electoral Tribunal clearly did not concern the rules or the resources. The judicial poverty of the law suit speaks for itself. Despite this, it showed that there are no limits to the damage that these groups are disposed to wreak on the reputations of persons and institutions so as to achieve advancing the cause of the conflict. It is clear that the claim was strictly one of power: it is our turn, period. Rules don’t matter, legislation is the least of it and the conflict will not cease until the result is another. All of this suggests that the incoming Peña government should not waste its time or resources on new political or electoral reforms that could never attend to the nature of the issue. It would do well to concentrate on changing the economic reality of the country in order to accelerate the pace of economic growth but also for this to drive a radical modernization of the Mexican Left.
The opportunity that presents itself derives in part from the election result of this year but is to a much greater a degree the combination of the changing international context and of the changes that the country has undergone, nearly sotto voce, over the past two decades. In terms of internal changes, there have been extraordinary investments in infrastructure, exports have transformed the productive structures, the population is more and more middle class, NAFTA has become consolidated as an anchor of trust for investment and growth, and financial stability has favored consumer growth and secured the credibility of key institutions that are crucial for development. In turn, the gradual decelerating of the Chinese economy has affected its suppliers of raw materials (above all Brazil and Australia), opening a space for Mexico to become a great pivot of growth in the coming years. If the new government deploys the capacities of negotiation and the articulation of alliances –of political operation- that has characterized its party,the transformation potential for the country would be immense.
The key to the next months resides in the priorities that Enrique Peña-Nieto decides to emphasize. It is obvious that action is required on many fronts, but the capacity of any government is always limited. Thus, he must define his priorities and the strategy capable of achieving these. To date, the team of the future government has delineated two groups of themes: those linked with corruption, transparency and the accountability and those relative to the economic reforms. The two are important and both require attention and, even, could be the means for constructing coalitions with distinct legislative contingents. The big question is definition: is the objective one of imitatingLapedusa (whereby everything changes so that everything continues the same) or to carry out reforms that, although these affect interests at the short term, would be susceptible to transforming the population’s and the country’s reality in the course of the next six-year presidential term. No definition is more transcending.
Part of the dilemma that the new government confronts encounters in its world view. There is the risk that it will attempt to advance transparency and accountability, as well as to reduce corruption, by bureaucratic means: more commissions, more regulations, more bureaucracy. The historical experience is transparent; the only thing that heightens efficiency, reduces corruption and compels transparency is the elimination of regulations and impediments. The example of the Mexican Ministry of Commerce and Industrial Promotion (SECOFI) in the eighties is illustrative: with the elimination of the requirement of prior permission to import, export, and invest, bureaucracy ended and corruption virtually disappeared. In regulatory as well as in structural themes, the how is as important as the what. In fact, as the (relatively poor) results of many reforms and privatizations of the eighties and nineties show, the how is on occasion much more transcendent because it is what determines the levels of transparency, competition, productivity, thus the economic dynamism and rate of growth.
The great opportunity for the new government derives precisely from its not being commandeered by an absolute majority in the legislative branch. The main stumbling blocks to the reforms are all PRIist or in close conjunction with the PRI. The need to construct coalitions allows the new president to separate himself from the latter in order to carry out changes of great import that give back to him and to the country.
In contrast to past governments, Enrique Peña is an innate political operator. This is the factor that can set the country loose to begin the transformation that has escaped it for years. Thus the definition that he adopts and the priorities of his political and legislative endeavors would prove crucial.
@lrubiof