Luis Rubio
Two very different moments portray recent times. One is that of AMLO and what he represented. The other is that of Claudia Sheinbaum. Although they have stemmed from the same locus in these last years, from Morena specifically, their histories are clearly distinct. The movement that AMLO headed was, in the words of Fernando Escalante, “a great offensive of the political class against the State.” The second moment is that of the current government, whose origin no longer harkens back to any of the PRI currents of the 20th century but instead refers to the political Left that emerged with the university student movement in the eighties and that eventually fused with the “historical” Left into what ended up being the United Socialist Party of Mexico (PSUM). Although one government arose from the other and insists on persevering in the project of the ancestor, its essence is different and will undergo distinct consequences. However, rather than leading toward a great future, both have succumbed to what Román Revueltas calls a “strong and non-negotiable Mexicanness.”
As a “son” of PRI, AMLO dedicated himself to concentrating presidential power and to conferring preeminence on the government. AMLO’s project was easily identifiable as derived from revolutionary nationalism, one of the two prominent branches of the PRI in its origins. The PRIsts always entertained the conviction of sticking to the formal rules, at least in appearance, modifying -but not annulling- the status quo and, above all else, preserving political stability. The materialization of that vision lay in economic growth as a factor of both development as well as of stability, values that AMLO opted to subordinate for the building of a clientelist system with obvious political as well as electoral benefits, but at a monumental cost for stability and the future. Where he deviated with respect to the tradition of his party-of-origin was in AMLO’s contempt for formalities and institutions. While his predecessors carefully honed their discourse and outwardly revered the institutions although all the while violating their rules (under cover of darkness), AMLO chose to concentrate the power in his person, not in the presidency. Perhaps more transcendent, his entire government devoted itself to undermining, if not destroying, the legacy that he defined as “neoliberalism,” the economic project that pulled the country out of the ditch from the eighties on and that led, indirectly, to the political liberalization of the nineties.
During her first months as President, Claudia Sheinbaum has clung to the pathway marked by her predecessor, but she has been exhibiting significant differences. Above anything else, by personality, history and training, she is the most distant from the old PRI that Mexicans have known. While her PAN predecessors continued to pay deference to the ways of the old system, she has etched her own style from day one, beginning with the reverence she shows toward her predecessor, something heretofore unknown in previous Mexican political history. Secondly, in contrast with AMLO, she not only understands the importance of economic growth in terms of attacking poverty and inequality, two of her project’s central values, she is also poised to find the way to accelerate it. Her strategy for achieving this (budgetary, rhetorical and institutional) can contradict that purpose, but it does not seem to me that there exists the least doubt regarding her conviction in that respect, further evidenced by her dedication to dealing with Trump. Third, her security strategy recognizes de facto notonly the enormous deficit left to her by her predecessor, but also the brutal cost of those famous bear hugs, as they comprised an incentive for the consolidation of organized crime in diverse regions of the country and sectors of the economy. Finally, she has been explicit in her conviction that the government has the responsibility of not only leading the development of the country, but also of regulating it and being the central factor in that process through public enterprises. That is, her stance remains one of Leftist conviction, not of convenience, such as that of her predecessor.
Clearly, these are not irreconcilable visions, but they are very distinct. Both favor the government over the market and public enterprises over private investment. Also, both share an anti-American streak, independently of whether, on their rational side, they recognize the need (or inevitability) of preserving the trade agreement with North America as well as a functional relation with the American people. Paradoxically, in many senses, both AMLO and the President represent much of the traditional character of the Mexican.
Román Revueltas argues this from start to finish: “Mexico has ended up not liking the West. It also is not thrilled with modernity. It takes solace in, it is true, the permanent evocation of a mythical past, local of necessity, obligatorily autochthonous.” Revueltas poses the central dilemma that the country faces from an anthropological perspective: “The outdated victimization of our people, inculcated at an early age in the schools and seasoned with the corresponding resentment, has rendered the flowering of a strange repudiation of our Northern neighbors.”
AMLO navigated without committing himself; now in the Trump era, Mexico has no choice but to define itself fully: toward the future or toward the past. The President will have to choose.
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