Storms | Luis Rubio

Luis Rubio

A cartoon circulating on social media captures much of the current state of the world: in it, two presidents—Xi Jinping of China and Donald Trump—are reading books. Xi holds The Art of War by Sun Tzu, the classic military strategy book that predates Machiavelli and Clausewitz on such matters, while Trump is reading his own book, The Art of the Deal, the book that explains and defines him, but which certainly has nothing to offer Sun Tzu. Indeed, the world is at war—largely initiated by Trump himself—but his apparent objective seems to be reaching an agreement that entails a redefinition of both international relations and the global economy. If so, he has chosen a rather dangerous path to achieve it.

I believe it’s essential to separate three aspects of what we are currently experiencing: the first, and most difficult to elucidate, is to discern the objectives behind the series of actions Trump has undertaken regarding Russia and China, as well as on tariffs. The second is the strategy he is using —i.e., the method and the back-and-forth steps taken to advance his cause. And finally, the third and most consequential: attempting to determine the limits he faces in achieving his goals. From all of this, we may be able to deduce where Mexico (and the world) will stand at the end of this road.

What we’ve seen is, first, a series of threats to impose tariffs on virtually all countries. This was followed by a formal announcement of those tariffs, demonstrating that he has technicians who can turn his prejudices about supposed barriers to American exports into seemingly sophisticated formulas. The reactions—especially from financial markets—were immediate: global stock markets experienced losses which, by one estimate, exceeded the total cost (adjusted for inflation) of the United States’ military effort during World War II. Simply put, it seems that this market reaction is what, after several days, led Trump to announce that—with the exception of China—all other countries would face “only” a 10% tariff. Financial markets responded positively, failing to notice that the tariffs with the greatest impact on Canada and Mexico, those on automobiles, remained at 25%.

Behind the tariff game, there appear to be three specific objectives: one of a geopolitical nature, involving a redefinition of relations among the three powers Trump sees as key—but especially between Russia and the United States. The deference with which Trump treats Putin suggests he sees him as an equal, regardless of the fact that Russia is, in the derogatory term used by Kissinger some time ago, “a gas station with nuclear weapons.” This perception has led many, since his first term, to speculate that there are other elements in the equation that are not (formally) on the table. From Trump’s perspective, China is not an equivalent superpower, as it is in decline economically and demographically. However, behind the U.S. government’s actions on tariffs, Trump seems to be targeting both China and Germany—two of the largest economies that, in his view, block access to American exports—which explains the visceral manner of his attacks. What is undeniable is both the force he is willing to employ to advance his agenda and the simplistic nature of his goals, which also include weakening the dollar to achieve the same end.

The speed with which Trump has acted—both in cutting government spending and in shaping trade policy toward the rest of the world—suggests he understands there are absolute limits to what he can do. His strategy seems to involve establishing faits accomplis that are impossible to reverse. In this way, as happened with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), he first eliminated the structure and then canceled the program. By the time the judges issued injunctions, the damage was done and practically irreversible. The same pattern applies to tariffs and to Zelensky: first the shock, then he figures out what and how to negotiate.

The ups and downs of recent days suggest that Trump is just getting warmed up. By now, everyone—from financial markets to the Chinese government—knows what aches Trump and how much pressure is needed to get a reaction. Moreover, the destruction of trust capital—America’s so-called “soft power”—that he has inflicted on its closest allies (especially Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, and Korea) is shocking, and all for no gain. In fact, it’s been pathetic to watch the richest and most prosperous country in the world convince itself that the rest of the world must pay for being subject to its economic interests.

The most obvious lesson seems to be that one must think before acting—and in this regard, the president of Mexico deserves a medal, not because she has achieved anything spectacular, but because by maintaining composure, she has avoided the damage that other nations are experiencing.