Luis Rubio
The Colombian president taught us all a lesson that he had no intention of delivering: he got into a fight with Samson, I mean Trump, and lost in less time than a goose crows. Compared to that spectacle, President Sheinbaum has conducted this extremely complex relationship with skill and clarity of purpose. Obviously, it is too early to claim victory, but the result to date is not bad. The problem is reaching the finishing line.
Trump is a born negotiator. His book describes in detail his way of proceeding: he pushes, threatens, corners and tests the resistance of his counterpart. Depending on the response he gets, he counterattacks until he finds a way to get his way. But, as his book describes, his objective is to win, regardless of the size of the prize: he attacks left and right and, when he wins, he moves on to the next thing. It is not very difficult to understand that the way to advance in a negotiation with him is to give him spaces to win where the cost for the counterpart is not prohibitive.
A derivative of the above, which I think would be desirable in Mexico’s case, would consist of finding a way to leverage the Mexican government’s projects with the objectives (and, above all, resources) of President Trump. The most obvious example, but far from the only one, would be the security strategy that, after so many hugs, has become a nightmare for citizens and a formidable challenge for the authorities. While her predecessor facilitated the growth and consolidation of criminal organizations, the latter dedicated themselves to entrenching themselves in their territories and equipping themselves with armored equipment and increasingly sophisticated weapons. The power of criminals grows exponentially in the face of a weak government. Beyond false nationalism, punctual and concerted support would be more than useful for a government that could easily be overtaken.
Whatever one’s opinion of Mr. Trump, it would be a serious mistake to underestimate him. But that is exactly what President Petro of Colombia did. Instead of designing a strategy to deal with Trump, he launched a rhetorical attack aimed at his base without considering the consequences. So absurd, improvised and clumsy was his tirade that Trump finished him off in a flash. It took just a few hours for the Colombian government to cave in and accept the entire package of conditions imposed by the American president. In the vernacular language that the previous Mexican president employed often, he folded.
So far, President Sheinbaum has managed to keep Mexico safe from the Trumpian onslaught. Whatever she is doing, it is working for her. The problem is that the American president is not going to be satisfied with verbal agreements and the capacity, as well as willingness, of the Mexican government to respond to his demands is not enormous. The question becomes serious; in a traditional Mexican expression, “How to get the ox out of the ravine?”
There are two key aspects to this matter: the internal and the American. On the internal side, the president has achieved a balance between her internal rhetoric and the negotiation with Trump. She has achieved this essentially by keeping the exchanges that are taking place with her counterpart secret, while exacerbating her harangues to the Morena base. The problem for her is that the scheme is not sustainable. First, the contradiction between the two discourses will soon be noticed, partly because what was agreed will have to be implemented and partly because at some point what is said in private will come to light. That is to say, sooner or later, the president will have to decide between satisfying her base or building the future, because the two are not compatible, at least not in the short term. And it is precisely for this reason that it would be extremely useful to leverage Trump’s objectives with a Mexican strategy to achieve tangible benefits that attenuate the potential Morena reaction.
The other side is the United States. Just as it would be foolish to underestimate Trump, it would be equally obtuse to disdain the checks and balances that characterize the American political system. Although the Republicans have a majority in both legislative chambers, each legislator answers to his or her voters and many of those citizens are susceptible of exerting pressure on their representatives. This is how it works there: a well-designed strategy to approach the districts that are relevant to Mexico -those that live off the bilateral relationship or where citizens with ties to Mexico live- could defuse the worst blows or, in a positive sense, help advance the achievement of favorable results for Mexico. Everyone uses the weapons they have, and Mexico has many potentially, but very few active ones. The first priority should thus be to identify them and put them into action.
Einstein said that “life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance you must keep moving.” The Mexican government, both the current and previous ones, enjoyed the advantages of migration and exports without solving the most basic problems facing the country. Now it is time to start moving. The key lies in finding common ground with Trump to solve our problems and, with that, his own.
www.mexicoevalua.org
@lrubio