Worldcrunch
Luis Rubio
November 21, 2024
Will Mexico’s leftist government show pragmatism in dealing with the next U.S. administration or just keep bashing Donald Trump and watch the dismal effects on its economy, asks Mexican political commentator Luis Rubio.
-Analysis-
MEXICO CITY — U.S.-Mexico ties will always be complex: two nations that share a long border, yet have enormous historical, cultural and economic differences. Theoretically, the relationship is also a tremendous source of opportunities.
Now, following the United States’ presidential elections, Mexico’s government must clarify its expectations of our northern neighbor and how it intends to deal with the incoming Republican administration of Donald J. Trump. Our first priority of course is figuring out how to will deal with our own problems and shortcomings, which some will say is the ultimate source of our past discrepancies and tensions with the United States.
For the latest news & views from every corner of the world, Worldcrunch Today is the only truly international newsletter. Sign up here.
There are three dimensions to be considered here: Firstly, the depth and importance of our economic interaction. This may be the world’s most dynamic frontier (with more than $3 million worth of trade per minute), letting through the exports that keep our economy going. In a word, there is no way to minimize the importance to Mexico of this commercial relationship.
Blunt truths
The second aspect concerns changes, made evident in the last elections, affecting American society both inside and in its relations with the world. We’re seeing a veritable epochal shift in response to stark internal divisions, to changes to the so-called world order and China’s emergence as a factor in this change, and to resurgent geopolitics in a dynamic global setting.
Thirdly and more closely related to Trump’s recent triumph: the bilateral relationship will become more transactional, with often asymmetrical exchanges that will nonetheless be transparent.
In contrast with more traditional administrations, Trump is clear and direct, with simple likes and dislikes, and a tendency to be blunt in both private and public. Above all, not everything in his mind is about Mexico.
How does the Sheinbaum government perceive the United States?
His vision may seem brutal, but he is not necessarily mistaken, especially when speaking about our country. Indeed, you would have to be blind to insist all is well in Mexico. This might be the time then to act preventively: by tackling our own problems in areas like crime, education and energy, and more broadly by addressing developmental needs.
In plainer terms, how does the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum perceive the United States? Can it see that the opportunities and risks inherent in this relationship largely depend on our own decisions? In bygone days of protected national economies, governments could hide behind geographical distance or notions of sovereign independence. Today, these constraints have become gloriously irrelevant, and potentially harmful, notions when exportation is what decides whether we have prosperity, or no economy at all.
Looking in the mirror
In an ideal world, every country would define its interests, objectives and preferences, then set about realizing them in practice. In the real world, options are restricted and the cowwnsequences of errors, plentiful. That doesn’t mean Mexico must simply submit to U.S. demands but it does require addressing its own failings, which have contributed to the reality we all know today.
Geography has given us an immense opportunity.
In a word, the best way to assure that ‘sovereignty’ we so cherish is through a strong economy and developed society. Nothing beats those two elements. But has the new government grasped what this implies?
Geography has given us an immense opportunity, yet as a country we have failed so far to create the conditions allowing physical connection with our neighbors to power our country’s comprehensive development. We may appreciate or despise the Americans, but they are if nothing else, a singular opportunity. That’s how we should look at them.
Complex phase
As for our weaknesses, in the making over decades of bad decisions by policymakers, touch key areas as education (where government objectives seemingly pursue everything but personal development), healthcare (where the state has reduced options and impeded an efficient system that would even benefit the neediest), and our mistaken priorities concerning infrastructures for the economy.
We’ve engaged in absurd commercial spats, and are now planning to overhaul a stressed judicial system in a way that will surely send investors running. All in all, we have been consistently adept at blocking development.
The problem is not Trump or the Americans, but our own national myth-making.
The problem is not Trump or the Americans, but our own national myth-making, which may be the real obstacle to our development. We seem to have an open, dynamic Mexico on the one hand, sharing the land with a backward, crime-ridden and intimidated half of the same population. Trump has pointed this out, and we can hardly blame him.
The change of administration will usher in a complex phase, but our interdependence remains the bigger reality. Now, should we pick the wrong path and face down “the gringos,” or take this change as a cue to work differently, work better, and push our country to a better place?
https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/trump-sheinbaum-trade-2024