Luis Rubio
Step by step, the project of concentration of power is now in its final phase with its consequent economic risks and inevitable destruction of civility. This statement will seem excessive to many, but history shows that when power is concentrated in a single person -and, worse, when this is done through disqualification and alienation- the result is an inexorable impoverishment of the country and, inevitably, of the poorest, those who gave their vote for the President who now betrays them.
The twilight of a government whose central project was the absolute denial of the plurality that characterizes the country begins. The President won with just over half the vote of the population, an exceptional result since the votes began to be counted in an impeccable and professional manner after the creation of the IFE (Federal Electoral Institute) in 1996. Five years later, the situation is different, as the contrasts between the potential candidates to succeed him attest to this. None of them fully represents him and none can bring up the same percentage of votes that López Obrador achieved in 2018. The exclusion of half of the citizenry, in addition to a good part of those who, while not being from Morena, conferred their vote to him, now present themselves in the form of incompatible pre-candidacies.
The president has created a mechanism that aims to avoid ruptures, while adding dissimilar contingents behind a winning candidate. A difficult objective to achieve despite the resounding success he has had in controlling not only the public debate, but especially the narrative that lies behind his leadership and the loyalty that his bases grant him. The President is popular, but his government is unpopular, and no one knows how these two factors will add up or collide on Election Day. The population seems satisfied with the improvement in their real incomes and in the level of employment, but the country continues to lag from when the government was inaugurated. In the UNDP’s human development index, Mexico lost 12 points, equivalent to ten years of previous progress. Here too, it is not obvious how these two factors -the recent improvement or the absolute loss – will impact on the minds of voters on Election Day in 2024.
The opportunity for the opposition, if it manages to ally itself and set up a common front, is more than evident. First of all, the loss of support for the President is real: Morena lost the midterm elections. The opposition does not control the Chamber of Deputies because it did not join in a common front on that election, but that could, and should, change in 2024. The speed with which the ruling party has entered the process of nominating its candidate does not mean that an alternative candidacy is impossible eleven months hence, when the new President will be elected. The notion that the only thing missing for the meal to be ready is for Morena to issue its verdict in the form of a candidacy is clearly false.
The exercise of power wears out all governments and more so when there is so little to offer in the form of tangible results. The government’s key projects remain unfinished, and it is doubtful whether they will have significant impacts on the lives of the population. The contentious nature of the presidential rhetoric pays off, but it is also alienating, and the resulting division translates into fractures that can end up being as consequential as the benefits. When the President imposes himself by demanding that the Congress “not change even a comma” to his legislative bills, he sends a message to his base, but he loses the rest of the citizenry. Not all the population is identical, submissive or docile, and it is not at all unlikely that, as the vote in 2021 illustrated, the President has lost the majority with which he won five years ago.
The attack against the institutional framework, the opposition parties and the emblematic institutions of the political transition undertaken from the nineties, especially entities such as the Supreme Court of Justice, the National Electoral Institute (INE) and the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information and Personal Data (INAI), has been relentless. The objective of submitting and subordinating the people has been express and manifest. But it has not been successful. The relevant question, less than a year from the day of the presidential election, is whether the current government will end up leaving a better country than it found. The hard data says no; the narrative that disputes the data says that the country has a health system like Denmark’s, that insecurity is decreasing, and that corruption has disappeared. Which will win: reality or the illusion? Another imponderable.
The reality is overwhelming and more so when, despite perceptions, there is no project liable to yield better results. Malcolm X, a human rights activist, wrote that “you’re not to be so blind in patriotism that you can’t face reality. Wrong is wrong, no matter what it says or does.” The citizenry will have in their hands the opportunity, and the responsibility, to decide what wins: reality or passing perception. The problem is not the government, always temporary, but the impact on the population, always permanent.
Today everything seems clear, but there are many months to go. British Prime Minister Harold Wilson said that a week is a lifetime in politics. Eleven months is an eternity.
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