Luis Rubio

In his novel on Argentina entitled Zama, Antonio Di Benedetto speaks of the “victims of expectation,” which Michael Reid, the Latin-American expert, interprets as the victims of waiting, a metaphor on the permanent expectancy of achieving the progress and prosperity that in Mexico would seem to be an interminable struggle to reach  the summit, only to find that, as in the famous parable of Camus, each time the goal comes closer, everything implodes and one has to start over. Mexican governments begin with hope and end in uncertainty; but that of López Obrador is exceptional due to his headlong boldness to keep pushing ahead with all the attendant fanfare to the end, only to find himself in straits where not everything is icing on the cake and where he can equally win or lose. It is there that one finds Mexico at the beginning of the last phase of this electoral contest.

A year ago, everything seemed to be rosy for the President and for whomever would be his candidate for the presidency.  Today things might appear to be similar (some surveys indicate this), but there are two factors that evidence the existence of a much more competitive environment. The first of these factors is that not all the measurements coincide. The dispersion that the surveys depict suggests at least two possibilities: on the one hand, the intention to manipulate public opinion, and, on the other, problems with measurement. The latter are accentuated when one observes the competition in the social networks, these presenting nearly the opposite situation from that shown by surveys enjoying a solid reputation. I am not saying that some are good and others bad, only that there are indicators warning of greater competition than is apparent.

The other factor that suggests greater competitivity in the contest that is underway is the President’s activism. Above all, his preoccupation is notorious; his morning press conferences are no longer epic exercises of convincing narrative, with no limit nor scruple, for their turning into flagrant proselytist activism. The change could seem insignificant, but it chiefly reveals a state of mind, and, principally, contempt for the canons established by the President himself at the beginning of his mandate. There is no better example of this than the risks that, in financial matters, he decided to take at the very end of his term-of-office, the most vulnerable moment for any president, precisely the period during which most of his predecessors were devoting themselves to close chapters, avoiding unnecessary conflicts, resolving those possible and trusting that things would turn out well.

Presidential proselytizing insinuates what the Greeks called hubris: the sensation that everything is possible, that there is no limit to what the individual wielding the power can achieve by only proposing it to themselves. For five years, the President was extremely conservative with respect to the fiscal accounts because he worried about being accused of causing a devaluation; given that the peso appears to be disconnected from the internal politico-economic happening, the government opted for putting all its eggs in one basket with an extraordinary growth in expenditures (thus, of indebtedness) during the last year of his presidential term. The same can be said for his twenty initiatives of constitutional reform, which are nothing other than an attempt to underpin, in the foundational legal document, everything that he in fact did without legal support throughout the entire administration, as if he were the sole relevant Mexican, deserving of immense power to alter the internal, always fragile order. For a president who likes to talk about history, his reading of what happened towards the end of administrations of the last decades is poor. The wagers that he has assumed (needless to say, in the name of the whole society) may turn out well or badly for him, but accounts always get settled. The only thing left to elucidate is who will have to pay for them: he or his successor, whomever she may be.

Beyond what the President does, the moment of succession unleashes all kinds of forces, interests and circumstances that, at the twilight of the sexennium, no one can control. The appearance of accusations concerning the financing of previous campaigns, evidence of corruption in the family nucleus, conflicts inside the Morena party and incongruencies in which the presidential candidate must incur to avoid unleashing the presidential ire are all examples of the type of imponderables that start to make noise and that, easily enough, could become a roaring river.

Long before the current electoral contest began taking shape, the governmental narrative argued that everything was already resolved, that the only matter left to clear up in terms of the succession was the naming of who would head up the Morena candidacy. The appearance of Xóchitl Gálvez on the scene, in no small way the product of the President’s arrogance, changed the political reality, while not the morning narrative. The attempt to discredit the opposition candidate, recurring as it has to confidential information and to manipulating it shamelessly as is usual in this government, exerted the immediate consequence of confusion, but the effect over time has been the opposite: today there are clearly two strong and vibrant candidates.

On his arrival at the presidency, López Obrador counted on wide popular support and the expectation that he would be a President for all Mexicans. Today is clear that he only works for himself. Another betting President: the last one, back in 1982, bankrupted the country.

www.mexicoevalua.org
@lrubiof

 Luis Rubio
March 4, 2024

 Electoral contests are akin to military campaigns: an objective is contested, weapons and tools of combat are deployed, and the aim is to defeat the enemy — in this case, the contender.

In his biography of Napoleon, Andrew Roberts states, “It was a measure of Napoleon’s resilience and ingenuity — and of the confidence he still had in himself — that, having returned from Russia with only 10,000 effective troops from his invading force, he was able to assemble an army of 151,000 men for the Elba campaign within four months, with many more to come.”

As in military campaigns, both sides believe they’ll emerge victorious, but in elections, only votes matter, and surprises can happen on either side.

Polls suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum will win the election, but in electoral matters and in the last year of a contentious government, anything can happen. Her campaign, starting with its leader (AMLO), continues to deploy increasingly heavy weaponry (the most recent announced on Feb. 5 with the constitutional reforms package), indicating their own uncertainty about their chances.

There are valid reasons for this uncertainty. The outgoing government focused on succession from day one, neglecting basic citizen concerns like security and economic development. Dedicated to building an electoral base, it now faces the question of whether its efforts guarantee the desired voting outcome, possibly at a high cost. While there have been significant improvements in real family incomes, the certainty of preserving them is lacking. Stretching resources has benefits but also risks.

A victory for Claudia Sheinbaum, the Morena candidate, would bring to power a person who has shown great executive capacity and who has a much more competent and organized team than her predecessor. It’s impossible to know what she would do as president, given that her campaign has focused on reproducing the statements and dogmas of the current government. While her biography suggests a propensity for action, drawing conclusions is challenging. Regardless, her success would depend on her ability to chart a new course, a common challenge in politics.

On the other hand, Xóchitl Gálvez is more transparent and direct, unburdened by a dominant president’s shadow. Her instincts clearly lie in unleashing the population’s potential; instead of aiming to control everything, she would seek to break the obstacles that hinder the citizenry’s development. Her history as an entrepreneur and a politician show a willingness to undertake projects and see them through, while her background and biography indicates a readiness to confront factors perpetuating inequality. Her main challenge would be leading diverse factions within her coalition.

The most dangerous scenario would be either candidate securing a significant majority in both legislative chambers, even a qualified majority. This scenario, hypothetically more likely if Morena were to win, would be especially harmful for Claudia Sheinbaum, who not only faces old and new conflicts within the web of contrasting interests characterizing her party, but it also could empower extreme factions and hinder governance.

This paradox is evident in recent nominations, such as for the mayoral candidate of Mexico City and for the Supreme Court.

There are still many months to go until this campaign concludes, a period during which numerous factors could alter what seems certain. Some of these factors will stem from the president’s eagerness to influence the outcome, while others are inherent in Mexico’s succession process.

As Chilean diplomat Gabriel Gaspar suggests, the full extent of uncertainty and lack of confidence will be revealed, “two traits that shape the feelings of broad majorities of our societies… Uncertainty for a significant part of the population is very concrete, as it becomes increasingly difficult to survive, to put food on the table, and at the same time, going out into the street becomes more dangerous every day.” And he concludes with what should be obvious for the contenders: “Replacing uncertainty requires certainties.”

Meanwhile, as Thomas Sowell says, “The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.“

Luis Rubio is the president of México Evalúa-CIDAC and former president of the Mexican Council on International Affairs (COMEXI). He is a prolific columnist on international relations and on politics and the economy, writing weekly for Reforma newspaper, and regularly for The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/opinion-on-the-campaign-trail-expect-the-unexpected/

Luis Rubio

Electoral contests are a little like military campaigns: an objective is disputed, arms and instruments of combat are deployed, and the defeat of the enemy is sought, in this case the contender. In his biography on Napoleon, Andrew Roberts states that it was “a measure of Napoleon’s resilience and resourcefulness –and of the confidence that he continued to have in himself– that, having returned from Russia with only 10,000 effectives from his central invading force, he was able within 4 months to align an army of 151,000 men for the Elbe campaign and many more to come.” As in bellicose campaigns, both parties believe themselves to be destined to win, but in electoral matters it is the votes that count and either one can surprise.

The surveys suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum will win the presidential election in Mexico, but in electoral matters and given the current government’s last year in office, particularly one as contentious as the outgoing one, anything can happen. Her campaign, beginning with its (real) head (i.e. AMLO), does not cease to call up increasingly heavy arms (the most recent of these announced on February 5^th, a series of bills including 18 constitutional amendments), showing that they are not so sure that they have already won.

There are good reasons for the latter. The government that is about to conclude its mandate dedicated itself to this presidential succession from its inaugural day (in fact from the very election itself back in 2018), ignoring its responsibility to deal with the most basic of matters for the citizenry, such as security and economic development. Devoted to building and nourishing an electoral base, it now finds itself before the tessiture of whether what was done was sufficient to guarantee the voting result desired. Perhaps it will achieve just that, but at a very high price. The population recognizes this government for its important benefits re the improvement of families’ real income, an achievement not in the least a lesser one, but one lacking the certainty of being preserved. Stretching the elastic band has its benefits, but also its risks…

A triumph of Claudia Sheinbaum, the Morena candidate, would deliver to the government a person who has shown great executive capacity and who is able to count on a much more competent and organized team than that of her predecessor. It is impossible to know how good a president she would make, due to that her campaign has focused on reproducing the platitudes and dogmas of the present government. Sheinbaum’s biography hints at a much more pronounced proclivity to act and transform, but deriving conclusions from that is not feasible. Something about which there is no doubt is that her success would wholly depend on her capacity to build toward the future, that is, to forsake the project from whence she comes. This would not amount to anything unusual in matters of politics, but it is not evident that she is aware of it as of today.

For her part, Xóchitl Gálvez is much more transparent and direct in her positioning due to her personality and because she does not navigate in the shadow of such a dominant president. Her instincts lie clearly in the freeing up of the population’s capacities; instead of aspiring to control everything, she could seek to break with the obstacles that impede and hinder the citizenry’s development. Her history as an entrepreneur and a functionary reflects a disposition for undertaking projects and for carrying them through, while her origin and biography would auger a clear willingness to confront the factors that maintain inequality in the country. Her principal challenge would lie in commanding dissimilar parties of her coalition that share few features in common.

The most dangerous scenario for the country would be one in which either of the two candidates were to procure an overwhelming majority in the two legislative chambers, even a qualified majority. This backdrop, hypothetically more probable were Morena to win, would be especially pernicious for Claudia Sheinbaum, who not only confronts old and new conflicts within the web of the counterpoised interests characterizing her party, but also because that would imply that the most extreme factions of her entourage would impose themselves for the sake of advancing their agenda, hampering her from governing. This paradox is not a meager one, as illustrated by the recent nomination of the candidate for Mexico City (CDMX) and to the Supreme Court.

There are still many months to go until this election-at-hand is over, a period during which there could appear innumerable factors that alter what for many is already a sure thing. Some of those factors will stem from the President in his eagerness to skew the result, while many others will be merely the product of the inevitable highs and lows of a process of succession that, in Mexico, always entails not only a changing of the guard, but also the termination of the power of the outgoing president.

Along the way, as the Chilean diplomat Gabriel Gaspar suggests, this will reveal a plenitude of uncertainty and a lack of confidence, “two traits that model the sense of wide majorities of our societies… Uncertainty for a good part of the population is more concrete, in that every day it is more difficult to survive, to fill the pot while, at the same time, going out every day into the street is more dangerous.” And he ends with what should be obvious for the contenders: “To replace uncertainty requires certainties.”

In the meanwhile, as Sowell says, “The fact that so many successful politicians are such shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, but also on us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.”

www.mexicoevalua.org
@lrubiof

Luis Rubio
February 27, 2024

It is not difficult to name the problems confronting Mexico; the hard part is to identify suitable solutions and create consensus for their implementation.

The problems are in good measure ageless and known to all, but their causes, consequences and potential solutions are always controversial. That’s why the old notion that the country is over-diagnosed and that the solutions are all but obvious is a false one or at least absurd. If they were, Mexicans would not be mired in the bog as we are.

Some of those problems are long-entrenched, while others are the product of the world’s accelerated evolution. Both, however, call for solutions that Mexican politicians have been incapable of providing.

In his presidential campaign, candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador outlined the historical problems precisely: poverty, inequality, low growth and corruption. This complex set of problems is perceived as central for the development of the country, but they are consequences, not causal factors. As the official campaign season draws near, any discussion likely to deliver a relevant and viable program of government must focus on the roots of those problems in order to effectively address them.

To further complicate things, there are new problems  change the environment within which economic activity takes place and societies interact. The globalization of economic activity — from which Mexico more than benefits through exports and, recently, through so-called nearshoring — renders it impossible (and counterproductive) to adopt unilateral economic measures, as would have happened a half-century ago.

Factors such as organized crime — a transnational activity — require attention at the domestic level, but no nation can thwart these on its own. The ubiquity of information and the universalization of access to it has changed all the factors that characterized political life in the past.

The point is that long-running problems require solutions that take into consideration the realities of today’s world. The current out-going administration’s attempt to distance itself from today’s reality has proven to be misleading and detrimental to development and, paradoxically, harmful for the poorest part of the population — the same people who most intensely suffer from the problems that the president identified during his campaign.

The surprising aspect of the situation that Mexico is undergoing, like that of other nations, is not that it is difficult to spell out what should be done. The hard part, for whatever reason, has been to move toward implementing those solutions. The answers are often in plain sight, although at first glance they do not seem plausible.

Ronald Reagan delineated the dilemma with clairvoyance: “For many years now … [we have been] told there are no simple answers to the complex problems which are beyond our comprehension. Well, the truth is, there are simple answers. There just are no easy answers.”

Mexico’s particular points of tension did not come about by chance. They are the result of political malfunction (often as a result of the increasing complexity of the modern world, as seen in Ukraine and with artificial intelligence, cyber-attacks, the possible return of Trump and other disruptive politicians, especially in the context of extreme institutional weakness and the absence of effective checks and balances), bringing forth a political and electoral (outlook/expectation) that has paralyzed the country. This, paradoxically, also constitutes a great opportunity because even the president’s most devoted followers know that progress is impossible without agreements on the basic elements of human coexistence.

Throughout the current administration, government budgeting has been particularly harmful to economic growth. By diverting resources that would have normally been dedicated to education, health and other public spending, the government preferred to direct funds to its preferred clientele via cash transfer social programs. As the comedian Andy Borowitz says, “it would be nice to spend billions on schools and roads, but right now that money is desperately needed for political ads.”

Election cycles make it impossible to build accords about and for the future, but the political campaign season is also a good moment to explore options and possibilities. The candidates’ proposals may or may not be viable, but they oblige the public to think beyond the prevailing status quo. For that reason, political campaigns give society an opportunity to propose solutions and new approaches to address existing issues. The result is the creation of a shared understanding that can be the basis for future solutions. One of the most frequent errors in political analysis is blaming leaders for problems that are, in fact, structural. However, that does not excuse those same politicians from the obligation to work on — or, during their political campaigns, to propose — solutions to overcome the systemic issues.

Luis Rubio is the president of México Evalúa-CIDAC and former president of the Mexican Council on International Affairs (COMEXI). He is a prolific columnist on international relations and on politics and the economy, writing weekly for Reforma newspaper, and regularly for The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/opinion-the-answers-to-mexicos-problems-may-be-simple-but-they-are-not-easy/

Luis Rubio

It is not difficult to elucidate the problems confronting Mexico; the hard part is to identify suitable solutions and to create consensus for their implementation. The problems are in good measure ageless and known to all, but their causes, consequences and potential solutions are always controversial. That’s why the old notion that the country is over-diagnosed and that the solutions are all but obvious is a false one or at least absurd. If they were, Mexicans would not be mired in the bog as they are. Some of those problems are ancestral, others the product of the world’s accelerated evolution, but both call for solutions that Mexican politics has been incapable of providing.

In his presidential campaign, candidate López Obrador outlined the ancestral problems precisely: poverty, inequality, low growth, and corruption. One can add or qualify each of these, even if the list summarizes the problematic that is perceived as central for the development of the country, but they concern consequences, not causal factors. That is, now, in view of the coming campaign season, a discussion likely to deliver a relevant and viable program of government must focus on the roots of the problems that have been identified for effectively being able to exert a direct influence on them.

On the other hand, complicating the panorama, novel problems are found or, at least circumstances that alter the environment within which economic activity and societies interact. The globalization of economic activity -from which Mexico more than benefits through exports and, recently, through so-called nearshoring– renders it impossible (and counterproductive) to adopt unilateral economic measures, as would have happened a half-century ago. Factors such as organized crime -a transnational activity- require attention at the internal level, but no nation can thwart these on its own. The ubiquity of information and the universalization of access to it has recast all the vectors that characterized political life in the past.

The point is that ancestral problems require solutions that should consider and form part of a conception that includes the realities typifying today’s world. The attempt to abstract itself from the world as the government about to end has encouraged has proven to be fallacious and detrimental to development and, paradoxically, harmful for the poorest population and the one entertaining the greatest propensity for suffering from the ills that the President identified in his campaign.

The surprising aspect of the situation that Mexico is undergoing, like that of other nations, is not that it is difficult to spell out what should be done. The hard part, whatever the cause, has been to advance toward putting those solutions into effect. The answers are often in plain sight, although at first glance they do not seem plausible. Ronald Reagan delineated the dilemma with clairvoyance: “For many years now, we have been shushed like children and told there are no simple answers to the complex problems which are beyond our comprehension.   Well, the truth is, there are simple answers. They just are not easy ones.”

The tensions distinguishing the country do not take place merely by chance -many of these are the upshot of the deepening complexity currently depicting the planet and that manifests itself in the Ukraine, in the surge of artificial intelligence, cyberattacks, the potential for a Trump comeback- and disruptive politicians, especially in the context of an extreme institutional weakness,  above all in terms of the absence of effective counterweights, bringing forth a political, and now an electoral, panorama that has paralyzed the country.  This, paradoxically, also constitutes a great opportunity because even the most devout believers within the President’s camp know that progress is impossible without agreements on at least the most fundamental elements of human coexistence.

The management of the governmental budget throughout the current administration has been particularly pernicious for the growth of the economy. On deflecting resources that would have normally been dedicated to education and health, as well as to public investment, the government preferred to endow its favorite clienteles with cash transfers. As the comedian Andy Borowitz satirizes, “it would be nice to spend billions on schools and roads, but right now that money is needed for political ads.”

Electioneering periods make it impossible to build accords about and for the future, but these times are also propitious moments for exploring options and possibilities. The candidates’ proposals may or may not be viable, but they obligate the citizenry to think differently about the prevailing status quo. In this latter sense, they open the door to society for it to propose solutions and alternative ways of addressing existing issues to focus on problems, establishing the possibility of common moorings for future solutions.

One of the most frequent errors in political diagnoses lies in attributing to the leaderships responsibilities that are in fact structural problems, but that does not in turn exempt these leaders from the obligation to work -or to come up with proposals during the electoral period- that cite alternatives that permit overcoming the structural complexities.

www.mexicoevalua.org
@lrubiof

Luis Rubio
February 13, 2024

Problems pile up when the capacity to respond diminishes. Even more so when those responsible appear utterly unwilling to respond.

It comes as no surprise to anyone these days that problems such as insecurity, criminality, corruption, racketeering and electoral conflicts continue to mushroom while candidates for office are assassinated, journalists are disappeared, land is expropriated without the least bit of a warning and attacks are made on anything contrary to the message put forth by the president. These are all examples of the contentious environment characterizing Mexico today, and evidence of a complete absence of governance.

To the latter, one must add the day-to-day governmental affairs that do not function as they should, from schools to the supply of drinking water or medicines, to cite three obvious examples. The same may be said of the extraordinary budgetary and financial imbalances taking place this year that will inevitably impact the finances of the next government.

If one accepts the definition of governance by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) (“governability comprises the mechanisms, processes and institutions that determine how power is exercised, such as decision-making with respect to issues of public concern and how citizens articulate their interests, exercise their rights, comply with their obligations and mediate their differences,”) the country is in effect not being governed; nor does there exist the minimal understanding of governance in order for it to occur. Considering that governance includes the planning and anticipation of future needs and challenges, Mexico maintains stability truly by a miracle. And miracles are always put to the test during the election cycle, during which the outgoing government loses its capacity for action, and the incoming government has not yet begun to focus on and organize itself for the same.

A sensible government that recognizes its limitations would seek out ways to decentralize decision-making to reduce risk and increase its problem-solving capacities. Mexico’s, however, has put all of the decisions not just in the hands of the federal government, but in the hands of the president. The institutional scaffolding constructed during the past decades has proven insufficient to stop this authoritarian onslaught, but it was at least an attempt to prevent this cardinal problem. Today, the only decentralization happening is that of transferring an increasing number of decisions to the army.

Resorting to the army is practical due to the vertical nature of the institution, which confers upon it a capacity for action even beyond that of an authoritarian government. However, the breadth of the activities entrusted to this institution have rendered the attainment of its goals impossible. I do not mean to undermine the work done by the army in this administration. Rather, I seek to acknowledge a simple fact: no one institution can take on the construction of mega infrastructure projects, administer airports and airlines, respond to natural emergencies (such as earthquakes or floods) and provide for national security.

The diversity of responsibilities bestowed on the army is such that their performance is always poor. It is not by chance that nations in which the government absorbed everything (like the former Eastern Bloc) ended up decentralized so as to raise the population’s standard of living. In other words, it is impossible to control everything and, at the same time, comply with the essential aim of any government, which is the physical safety of the population and to create the conditions for economic progress.

It is clear that these factors have not been a priority (or even an objective) of the current government, but their absence constitutes a major challenge for the current electoral year and for the incoming government. It is easy to lose sight of this while the president entertains high levels of popularity at the same time that economic variables (such as the peso-dollar exchange rate and the price of gasoline) remain stable.

But anyone who has observed the country’s evolution over the past decades knows that this is unsustainable. In other words, the absence of governance not only creates a risk for the outgoing government, but also for the country in general — precisely at the most delicate moment of the sexenio: that of the transition of power.

Max Weber, the early 20th-century German sociologist, wrote that there are three types of legitimate authority: the charismatic, the rational-legal and the traditional. Mexico has lived through five years of a charismatic exercise of power, the most unstable of the three according to Weber. Upon abandoning the responsibility of governing, the president has ceded the state to criminals and to chance, therefore guaranteeing that any stability we see today is exceedingly precarious.

Luis Rubio is the president of México Evalúa-CIDAC and former president of the Mexican Council on International Affairs (COMEXI). He is a prolific columnist on international relations and on politics and the economy, writing weekly for Reforma newspaper, and regularly for The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal and The Financial Times.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/politics/opinion-is-mexicos-government-governing/comment-page-1/#comment-3309

Luis Rubio

Paraphrasing Albert Camus in his speech on receiving the Nobel Prize in Literature, “all governments doubtless feel called upon to reform the world.” Few achieve it. As soon as their mandate ends, the reverberations begin: what remained inconclusive, what was not done, what was done wrong. Or worse. In the Mexican post-Revolutionary era, the natural response was that of correcting the course in what was denominated as the “theory of the pendulum:” one government moved in one direction, the next one corrected course by going in the opposite direction.  This manner of functioning changed from the eighties on in that the country opted for incorporating itself into the world’s technological, financial and commercial circuits in order to achieve lasting stability. From 2018, the government has attempted to obviate that goal, recreating the risk of a pendular movement. Where does that leave the future?

Contrary to what is usually thought (and is insisted upon in the daily narrative) between the eighties and 2018 there was less continuity than apparent and there certainly was no consistent strategy throughout the period. After a clear beginning and one with strategic vision, what did ensue was an acceptance, sometimes a reluctant one, of the lack of alternatives in matters of economic policy, which translated into a series of disjointed policies, frequently inconsistent, but that advanced in the same direction. The formal objective was the incorporation of Mexico into the global economy and every action of the governments of that era attempted to make headway on certain fronts or to correct deficiencies that rendered the course of action difficult, but no integral or consistent strategy emerged.

The lacks and absences that emerged in that period are known by all because there is irredeemable insistence on them in the daily public discourse. What is not recognized, in that it would be equivalent to engaging in heresy, is that Mexico’s problems are not the product of what was done (although there were errors, no doubt), but instead that of what was not done. Claudio Lomnitz described the heart of the problem in an article appearing in the periodical Nexos a year ago whose subtitle says it all: “The Island of Rights and the Sea of Extortion.” According to Lomnitz, the reforms of the eighties and nineties created a space where there existed rules of the game and toward which resources were allotted in the form of infrastructure as well as of governmental capacity (a semblance of transparency and legality), but rather than amplifying that space for the whole society and territory, the government abandoned the Mexican who did not fit into  the former space to their own devices and it is therein that the country collapsed into a sea of violence, the absence of justice and extortion.

The paradox of the current government is that it did not have much of a favorable impact on any of those lacks or absences that it identified (and with which it won the presidency) but instead, in any case, it has accentuated, if not deepened, them. Although there has been significant improvement in the real incomes of the population, severe reversals in both institutional strength and democratic development do not augur well for the future and could undo the former. Against the expected, and despite the president’s popularity, Mexico today is more unequal and less prosperous.

For the past five years, the government was mindful of public finances and benefitted from both the reforms of the previous decades that it so much condemns, and of the increasing “independence” of the exchange rate from the public accounts. Nonetheless, at the start of this electoral year, the horizon has changed: big deficits now loom threatening fiscal stability, twenty bills to amend the constitution that would change the political and institutional panorama, which could lead to a crisis like that of the 80s, were introduced to the Congress. As the saying goes, he who sows the wind, reaps the storm: nothing is written regarding the president’s popularity, exchange stability or the electoral outcome.

In stark contrast with his predecessors, the President had the opportunity to affect deeply rooted interests in diverse ambits of the Mexican society that have been successful in impeding the adoption of much more aggressive policies in matters of justice, equity, distribution of public resources and infrastructure, but he chose to rest on his laurels, as if the mere presence of a powerful President would change history. Thus, he could have been the grand builder of the future made it much more difficult and saturated with uncertainties.

On October 1, 2024, the day on which the next government will be inaugurated, the country will find itself before a sober panorama, with a divided society and a much less vigorous economy than it could, and, more than anything else, one whose productivity levels are very low, and where poverty and regional inequality will have proliferated. Whoever becomes the President that day will find herself facing severe lacks and the enormous challenge of having to correct course, which will require the support of the Mexican society. The new President’s first decision, from the moment of the inaugural address itself, will of necessity be related to whether she will attempt to unite the entire Mexican society in a common project or whether she will proceed to accentuate the divisions.

Whoever wins, here true dilemma will be how to get out of the hole in which the outgoing government will have left the country and how to get rid of its protagonist.

www.mexicoevalua.org
@lrubiof

Luis Rubio

The problems pile up while the capacity to respond diminishes. If to this one were to add the utter unwillingness of the government to find solutions to the problems that appear (and to those that it unnecessarily generates), the explosive potential, above all in an electoral year, intensifies without limit. It comes as no surprise to anyone that problems such as insecurity, criminality, corruption, protection racketeering, and electoral conflicts mushroom in uncontainable fashion.  Assassinated candidates for office, disappeared journalists, expropriations without the least of warnings and the incessant attack on anything giving rise to a discrepancy in the presidential line are all examples of the contentious environment characterizing Mexico today. These are also evidence of the complete absence of governance.

To the latter one must add the day-to-day governmental affairs that do not function as they should, from schools to the supplying of drinking water or medicine, to cite three obvious examples. The same may be said of the extraordinary budgetary and financial imbalances taking place during the present year and that will inevitably impact the finances of the next government.

If one accepts the conventional definition of governance of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) (“governability comprises the mechanisms, processes and institutions that determine how power is exercised, such as decision-making with respect to  issues of public concern and how citizens articulate their interests, exercise their rights, comply with their obligations and mediate their differences,”) the country is in effect not being governed; nor does there exist the most minimal understanding of or the disposition to erect the scaffolding for that to occur. Were one to add that the problems do not lie exclusively in the here and now, but instead in the planning and anticipation of the future needs and challenges, the country maintains stability truly by a miracle. And miracles are always put to the test during the processes of presidential succession during which the outgoing government comes to lose the capacity of action, while the following government has not yet begun to focus on and organize itself for that capacity.

A sensible government that recognizes its limitations would search out ways to decentralize decision-making to reduce risk and elevate the capacity of managing the existing ones, but Mexico’s has been employed in centralizing all of the decisions no longer in the government in general, but rather in the person of the President. The institutional scaffolding constructed during the past decades proved not to have the capacity to respond in the face of the presidential onslaught, but it was at least an attempt to attend to this cardinal problem. Today the only existing decentralization, if it can be called that, is that which has been carried out on transferring an increasing number of decisions to the Army.

Resorting to the Army makes sense due to the vertical nature of the institution, which confers upon it a capacity for action even beyond that which an authoritarian government could exercise. However, the diversity and dispersion of the activities entrusted to it have rendered impossible the attainment of the proposed objectives. I do not write this as an evaluation of what has been transferred to the Army, but as a generic appreciation: no one can undertake the construction of any type of work, administer airports and airlines, respond to natural emergencies (such as earthquakes or floods) and the national security. The diversity of responsibilities is such that the performance involved is always poor. It is not by chance that nations in which the government and its entities managed everything (like the former Eastern Bloc) ended up decentralized so as to raise the population’s standard of living. That is, it is impossible to control everything and, at the same time, to comply with the essential core of any government, which is the physical and patrimonial safety of the population and the creation of conditions for economic progress.

It is clear that these factors have not been a priority (or even an objective) of the current government, but their absence constitutes a major challenge for the passing of the electoral year in which Mexicans are immersed and, second, for the incoming government to possess the capacity to operate and move ahead. It is easy to lose sight of the transcendence of these elements when the President entertains high levels of popularity at the same time that the most visible economic variables (such as the peso-dollar exchange rate and the price of gasoline) remain stable and at politically benign levels, but whosoever has observed the country’s evolution over the past decades  knows well that this are unstable, when not ephemeral, factors. In other words, the absence of governance not only entails a risk for the outgoing government, but also for the country in general precisely at the most delicate moment of the sexennial period: that of the transition of power.

Max Weber, the German sociologist at the beginning of the XX century, wrote that there are three types of legitimate authority: the charismatic, the rational–legal and the traditional. Mexico has lived through five years of the charismatic exercise of power, the most unstable of the three according to Weber. On abandoning the responsibility of governing, the President has ceded the State to the criminals and to chance, therefore guaranteeing that the stability at present would be exceedingly precarious.

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Luis Rubio

A “trilemma” occurs when there are three critical objectives but only two are attainable at the same time. From the time that I became acquainted with this formulation it seemed to me that it described well the contradictions that characterize Mexico: the search for political and economic stability above the disorder, the violence and the propensity for anarchy; the desire to consolidate a democratic regime; and the eagerness to build a competent and functional governance. The past four decades have been witness to important efforts to advance in these three ambits, perhaps without coming to a halt to notice the inherent contradictions in the objective, thus, the impossibility of achieving it.

The reforms that were advanced between the eighties and the last decade were conceived to advance the first objective, especially economic stability. The goal was to create conditions to attract private investment for the purpose of developing an industrial development platform. Each of the components that was integrated into the process, from the liberalization of trade in    1985 up to the energy reform of 2013, constituted an additional scaffold to conform the scenario that has permitted the consolidation of an export manufacturing industry.  Today’s entire Mexican economy depends on those exports, therefore, despite all the avatars, the achievement is none the lesser.

The flip side of the coin is that everything was wagered on the construction of that export platform, which implied forgetting (and, in fact, losing) the majority of the population that remained trapped in the prevailing disorder, as much due to the poor government itself in general, as to the uncontainable wave of violence and criminality that razes increasing numbers of communities. Both factors –the incompetent government and the organized crime- complement each other and provide mutual feedback: those who occupy governmental posts derive political and personal benefits, while organized crime prospers and proliferates at the expense of the health and tranquility of the citizenry.

The desire to erect a democratic regime has been present since the dawning of Mexico as an independent  nation,  undergoing various exceptionally successful moments in the XIX as well as at the beginning of the XX century, but it was not until the second half of the last century, after the Student Movement (1968) and the growth of a solid and competitive opposition, that a democratic schema began to take shape that obligated the forging of an electoral regime into which everyone would  fit. However, observed in retrospect, that regime travelled faster than what the government and its sources of power were (are) willing to advance, yielding the results that one sees today: a government incapable of providing security to the population, an endless waste of resources; the total absence of transparency in the exercise of the governmental function; and, on top of everything, a government that does not satisfy even the most minimal standards of health, education, infrastructure and, in general, conditions for development.

The propensity toward anarchy that vast regions of the country experience is not the product of chance. A very high proportion of the population lives in submission to extortion and/or violence, in addition to injustice, generated by these same organizations and that impede not only the normality of daily life, but also the development of the country. The worst of it all is that there is not even a recognition of the nature of the problem or of the incompatibility of the current system of government with growth, stability, or democracy.

The question is, well, where to start. The promoters of the democratic transition assumed   that the professionalization of the mechanisms and the administrative organs of the electoral processes would in themselves resolve the problem of governance. It was reasonable to think like that, given that the approval of the respective reforms enjoyed near universal legislative support, with the decided participation of all the political forces. From that perspective, the wager made sense. Nonetheless, the result a quarter of century later is not commendable.

Scholars of the chaos marking nations such as Iraq and Syria have arrived at the conclusion that anarchy is the greatest threat to the construction of viable society. In the words of Robert Kaplan*, “A year of anarchy is worse than a hundred years of tyranny.”

Mexico has not reached the extreme of those nations, but parts of the country suffer in a climate of violence that is not very distant from what takes place in some zones of the Middle East. Also, although the level of dysfunctionality typifying Mexico is not like that of those nations, its inability (and indisposition) to resolve problems is comparable.

The bottom line is that the country runs the risk of advancing toward an ever more generalized chaos and that the democratic processes would not be able curb. What is urgent is to transform the system of government for it to be possible to build a lasting peace, create conditions for development and establish a sustainable platform of economic and political stability. Urgent and important at the very same time.

*The Tragic Mind

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