Contrasts
September 22, 2019
Luis Rubio
In 2018 two contrasting, but equally representative and valid, Mexicos manifested themselves: that of an angry and resentful population that wanted to change its reality, although not in possession of a clear course, and the other, which wanted to have access to a modern education, successful global insertion and a true capacity for raising productivity in a context of the Rule of Law and transparent rules of the game. The former cohort voted en masse for AMLO and expects prompt results. The latter perceived improvements throughout recent decades but is not satisfied. They voted differently, but they confront -we confront- the same challenges.
The electoral results at the regional level of Election Day 2018 are very revealing: voter abstention was relatively high in regions where things had improved substantially, while it was very low in zones where there had not been growth. That is, people are not satisfied with the pace of the advance, but everyone wants progress, everyone wants improvement. The paradox, in itself demonstrative, is that those who have benefited (as in the states of Aguascalientes, Querétaro and, in general, in Mexico’s North and East) are unsatisfied with the improvement not being faster, while those who have not benefited at all demand being included in the benefits. No one wants to go backward: what they insist on is going more rapidly, but with better distribution of the benefits.
It is not two visions for the country, it is two contrasting realities after decades of partial reforms, insufficient and, in many cases biased. The reforms initiated in the eighties were unavoidable because the model of development that had been so successful in the post-WWII era stopped working and, on attempts to maximize it along the seventies, the collapse was caused of governmental finances in 1982, and then many years of economic crises and almost hyperinflation. It is not true that the country found itself in a nirvana at the beginning of the eighties: rather, it was a mirage, the product of an instant of high oil prices and the great availability of foreign debt, both, as Lopez Velarde would have said, underwritten by the devil.
The problem of the reforms was not the imperious need for them, but instead the criterion that ushered them in: reforms were made not to alter the status quo, but to make it viable. The objective was to reactivate the economy after years of incessant crises, in order to maintain the old political system intact. Under this premise, it is not by chance that many political, union and business bosses preserved their privileges, making progress impossible for vast regions of the country, sectors of the economy and parts of society. It is also not surprising that the indexes of poverty and marginalization were maintained or that corruption persisted.
One must bear in mind that the reforms were driven by the technocrats and limited by the politicians, whose interplay produced inevitable contrasts and contradictions. What is ironic about AMLO’s proposals is that he has excluded those who would have been his best allies in satisfying the claims of all Mexicans: similarly for those who feel dissatisfied despite it having gone reasonably well for them as for those who are dissatisfied because their lot has not improved in the least. Perhaps this explains the enormous contrast between the approval that the person of the president basks in and the meager support afforded his initiatives. In colloquial terms, no Mexican would wish to continue living by a thread depending on old technologies (as shown in an extraordinary video where AMLO proposes to preserve donkey-driven old mills) when they aspire to live like those appearing on television. The solution does not lie in going backward, but in making haste forward under the assumption of inclusion and social mobility. That is where AMLO could indeed transform Mexico.
If the scenario is so evident, why are there no massive marches in favor of a better education, clear-cut and reliable rules and an end to extortion and impunity? Without doubt, a great part of the explanation can be found in the reality of the country’s fiefdoms: whatever the sphere within which each Mexican moves, there is always a local mafia-like boss or special interest that holds that ability to move in check. Some of these are quite obvious, such as the mafias of organized crime and those of education, like the National Confederation of Education Workers (CNTE), but others are more subtle: clientelist donations in which the president delights have the effect of mollifying in place of resolving problems; the manipulation exercised by the electronic media, which closes, rather than opens up, opportunities to those living furthest from the possibilities of development that today’s world offers, and exacts; and, no less important, the fedupness engendered by decades of promises and evidence of corruption. People are not foolish and do understand, but their possibilities of acting are scarce in the absence of propitious conditions or the presence of oppressive leaders.
The electoral result of 2018 was the product of insufficient reforms that left the majority of the population dissatisfied. It is time to shoulder responsibilities and build a new future. Would that the president were willing to be at the helm of this.
@lrubiof