Claudia Sheinbaum faces adversity

Mexico’s Politics – 15 Jun
THE MEXICO BRIEF

by Luis Rubio.

Editor’s note: Mr. Rubio as a political analyst and chairman of México Evalua.

From the moment she was nominated as Morena’s presidential candidate, speculation arose regarding her capacity and willingness to break with her predecessor, as has been the tradition in Mexican politics. Although speculation has not ceased, the evidence is overwhelming: the president sees herself as an operator or implementer of AMLO’s agenda. However, circumstances have changed, and the need to respond to a scenario infinitely more complex than the one her predecessor faced (in part due to the legacy he left behind) is forcing her to increasingly take actions that he clearly disapproves of. The question then is: what comes next?

In Mexican political tradition, it was said that the outgoing ruler did not choose a successor but rather an executioner. That clearly did not happen with AMLO, who carefully selected someone with the skills to manage a government, but not to undertake bold political initiatives. Which of these paths will prove true? So far, there is no doubt that AMLO’s logic dominates the landscape. At the same time, it’s not clear what the true profile of the government led by Sheinbaum actually is.

Boz, a publication focused on Latin American governments, conducted an interesting analysis of Claudia Sheinbaum.

First, “President Claudia Sheinbaum is a technocrat who has demonstrated brilliant political skill in managing domestic politics and Mexico’s relations with the US. She has inherited a difficult economic situation, but is working to improve the business environment… she appears to have a more logical security policy than her predecessor… she gets ‘things done.’” 

Second, “President Claudia Sheinbaum is engaging in an institutional power grab to return Mexico to a competitive authoritarian state…The Morena party is by far the strongest and most organized national party, increasing its level of control at the state and municipal levels and making sure the president can control the entire country.” 

What Boz is saying is that both narratives are believable based on how Sheinbaum is conducting herself.

Are these two sides of the same coin or a deceptive façade? Opinion pages and dinner table conversations are saturated with speculation about the president’s “true” goals and what they imply for the future. Topics such as her family background and her political activism during her university years have been discussed ad nauseam — all of which undoubtedly shape her “public persona” — but none of that guarantees insight into her nature or how she might evolve. At a press conference early in his term, when pushing for major liberalizing reforms, Brazilian President Cardoso was asked by a reporter about his past leftist activism and academic publications; his response was blunt and immediate: “That stage or my life was amortized a long time ago.”

The central question remains: Will Sheinbaum be able to maintain her original plan as AMLO’s implementer despite the challenges posed by Trump, economic slowdown, the influence of Canadian Prime Minister Carney, lack of private investment, etc? There is nothing in the current landscape to suggest an imminent shift, but what is certain is that the current path does not lead to the goals she herself has set (and keeps reiterating) for her government.

My impression is that meetings like this week’s G7 summit (which she is attending, albeit reluctantly), along with growing external pressures, will force her to reflect on the path she has chosen. However, if I had to bet, I’d say she won’t stray from her lane — which leads to other questions: what’s next? How will she deal with the consequences of the decisions she’s made? Also, of no small relevance, how will her encounter with President Trump go? Will he set a trap for her? Will he blame her for water shortages along the border waterway? Will he blame her for the LA riots?

Unlike AMLO, who benefited from exceptionally favorable economic conditions (three decades of reforms and stability), along with extraordinary political skills, Sheinbaum faces the exact opposite: an extremely complex domestic and international environment and very limited political maneuvering room. It’s clear she sees her popularity as a fixed, immovable asset — but that’s nothing more than a mirage. If she doesn’t act, the landscape will become increasingly complicated and, in that context, both of Boz’s scenarios might prove wrong: instead of her skills enabling things to “get done,” or her authoritarianism to “work,” she could end up being authoritarian and facing an economic or political crisis—or both.

This story is still far from being fully written.

https://www.themexicobrief.org/latest/claudia-sheinbaum-faces-adversity